Recent Publications


. Crack models of repeating earthquakes predict observed moment-recurrence scaling. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 2018.


. The forecasting skill of Coulomb-based seismicity forecasting models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Seis. Res. Lett., 89 (4): 1238-1250, 2018.



. Connecting crustal seismicity and earthquake-driven stress evolution in Southern California. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 122, 6473ā€“6490, 2017.


. A slow rupture episode during the 2000 Miyakejima dike intrusion. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 122, 2017.


. Dynamic Triggering in the East Pacific Rise. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2016.


. Aftershock triggering by postseismic stresses: a study based on Coulomb-Rate-and-State models. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 120, 2388ā€“2407, 2015.


. Propagation of Coulomb stress uncertainties in physics-based aftershock models. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 119, 7846-7864., 2014.


. Testing atmospheric and tidal earthquake triggering at Mt. Hochstaufen, Germany. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 118, 5442-5452., 2013.


Research projects

Crack models of small repeating earthquakes

I use fracture mechanics concepts to derive analytical expressions for the recurrence interval of repeating earthquakes, which explain the surprising scaling observed in nature.

Dynamic Triggering at Oceanic Transform Faults

I use stastical tools to analyze data from ocean bottom seismometers in the East Pacific Rise, and detect instances of dynamic earthquake triggering from remote mainshocks.

Earthquake Cycle and time-dependent coupling in Subduction Zones

Using 2-D simulations and fracture mechanics concepts, I am investigating the seismic cycle of subduction zones.

Seismic swarms and aseismic slip driven by dikes

In a seismic swarm during the 2000 Miyakejima dike intrusion we find evidence of aseismic slip on a complex fault system.

Static stress triggering in Operational Earthquake Forecasting

During my PhD, I have developed new models of seismic sequences based on stress interaction. Now I am involved in collaborations aimed at further refining and developing and testing them.


  • April

    • Invited seminars at CalTech (April 6) and MIT (April 11).

    • April 23-26: I’ll be at the SSA meeting in Seattle, where I’ll give a talk on theoretical arguments for the statistical properties of seismicity on simple planar faults, and co-chair a session on earthquake forecasting.

  • February

    • Friday 26 - Invited talk at the Berkeley Seismology Lab.

    • Congratulations to PhD student Simone Mancini, whose AGU talk on Coulomb stress models of the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence won him an Oustanding Student Paper Award!

  • December
    • I’ll be at the AGU meeting in Washington, where I’ll give a talk on my recent paper about crack models of small repeating earthquakes. And don’t miss other presentations by my coauthors: Simone Mancini will give a talk on Coulomb stress models of the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence; Eric Burton will present a poster on time dependent fault locking in Japan; Brittany Erickson and colleagues from the Community Code Verification Exercise for Simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip will present a poster with the results of the first benchmarks.
  • July
    • invited talk at ETH, Zurich (Crack models to explain seismic cycles at different scales: small repeating earthquakes and vertical strike slip faults)


GEOPHYS 385L: Earthquake Seismology, Deformation, and Stress (list of recommended reading for Spring Quarter 2018)

GEOPHYS 130: Introductory Seismology - lecture on “Fundamentals of Earthquake Forecasting”.

GEOPHYS 287: Earthquake Seismology - lecture on “Earthquake Forecasting beyond stationary Poisson models - ETAS and Coulomb stress transfer”.